How Likely Is There To Be A Nuclear Missile Launch In The Forseeable Future?

For at least the past fifty years, the general opinion has been, and our strategic schools teach, that nuclear weapons are political not military in nature. It is relatively impossible to use them. 1) Because if one does use them, one is open for becoming the victims of their use. 2) Politically, it would render a country isolated, and perhaps so severely that economic viability would fall into question. 3) And they are so destructive to civilians it is very hard to make use of without repercussions even from one’s allies or one’s own people.
The world operates on a basic principle that they are a last resort.
Iranians, Pakistan, and north Korea are the outliers. But while public rhetoric is one thing, actually pushing the button when doing so means that it is very likely that everyone in your country might die because of it, and certainly you will, makes it an unlikely thing to happen. Pakistan and India hold each other at bay. North Korea makes a lot of noise in order to obtain commercial and political bribes to balance out its horrid economy. And Iran is very cautious about building its program – and while the Iranian government is absurd by our standards, the Iranian intelligence service and its military are not. They are better off slowly gaining weapons and accumulating power through economic, political and conventional military means. We have to recall that for Russia, Iran and Venezuela in particular, rattling sabers increases the price of oil. So they try to rattle them whenever it will profit them.
So, it doesn’t APPEAR likely that anyone would use nuclear weapons. But a crystal ball that works doesn’t exist.

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