Russian Sociodemographic Cycle

Nefedov, Turchin and Malkov: sociodemographic cycles

(The implied argument is that the Kondratiev wave and the agrarian waves are about the same, and that we exhaust possibilities of expansion on a predictable cycle (it takes two generations to exhaust and opportunity)

The basic logic of these models is as follows:

1) After the population reaches the ceiling of the carrying capacity of land, its growth rate declines toward near-zero values.

2) The system experiences significant stress with decline in the living standards of the common population, increasing the severity of famines, growing rebellions etc.

3) As has been shown by Nefedov, most complex agrarian systems had considerable reserves for stability, however, within 50–150 years these reserves were usually exhausted and the system experienced a demographic collapse (a Malthusian catastrophe), when increasingly severe famines, epidemics, increasing internal warfare and other disasters led to a considerable decline of population.

4) As a result of this collapse, free resources became available, per capita production and consumption considerably increased, the population growth resumed and a new sociodemographic cycle started.

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