There is just about zero chance I’m wrong in the medium and long term. Short term fine. I usually make money investing on the slow response of governments by currency trading. This is one of those things that’s got to happen. The state has no choice if it wants to survive.
Explaining My Skepticism About the Future of BTC
Many of the counter-arguments depend on the government lacking the incentives. And lacking means of suppression. It has the incentives. And very high rates of suppression are easy. Especially if all major holders must exit BTC to FEDOLLAR or face asset seizure.
I’m looking at (engineering) the next great transformation of money and economy, and seeing what the state MUST do. And it MUST expand all economic measurements in order to respond more quickly than is possible through present monetary fiscal and trade policy. And it must bypass the financial and banking sector to do so, going directly to citizens and residents. Which will separate the figure-8 movement of money through the economy into consumer, business, and state.
It must BURN the financial sector to save the state. And it must bring much of what is now private into public-private sector cooperation on the Chinese and fascist model. This is absolutely positively going to happen.
Now, I would, and I’m sure they will, use BTC to legitimize the new FEDOLLAR by forcing transfer from BTC into FEDOLLAR. FEDOLLAR will consist of multiple ‘currencies’. Saving, Retiring, Medical, Cash, etc. They will nationalize all unfunded Pensions and most of the Insurance industry claiming that the fed is the insurer of last resort (true). They will prohibit private issuance of consumer loans and offer consumer loans direct from the treasury (FEDCREDIT) at zero or simple interest. They will probably produce negative interest rate loans for home ownership.
Any money the State has in FEDOLLAR saving, retiring/pension, medical, insurance, can be put to use for combined state-private investment, and some of the shared returns captured by the state as part of that shared investment. This lowers the burden of individual and corporate taxation, lowers consumer prices, likely lowers demand for increasing wages, increases purchasing power, neutralizes international competitive advantage, and guts the financial sector and the globalist financial sector restoring the legitimacy of the state that’s presently been lost.
The state will provide liquidity by direct deposit into FEDCASH accounts. So, if you have the equivalent of BTC in different ‘coins’ FEDSAVE, FEDMED, FEDRETIRE, FEDCASH, FEDCREDIT, and assets in FEDTITLES title registry, and constracts in FEDCONTRATS the state won’t care. Because the state (Treasury) can only increase the supply of FEDCASH. Those other assets remain solid at market prices. And FEDSAVE functions just as BTC does today, except it’s insured by the state.
But if a large amount of capital is not participating in the economy like BTC today, they’re going to drive it into participation in the economy. They have to. Because, given demographics, we are going to rapidly transform from an investment rich economy to an investment poor economy over the next ten years.
So, CHINA’s ‘intermixed’ economy will replace (worldwide) the democratic-socialist-to-
anglo-neoliberal mixed economy. CHINA IS THE MODEL. That’s what’s going to happen. Absolutely positively guaranteed. If they drive btc into a purely criminal activity (which they will) it will always exist but it will crash in value and it will be prosecuted in the future just like they prosecute counterfeiting today.
That’s just ONE example. I can do this all day long. As far as I can tell, all everyone in the crypto community has done is provide free research and development for the next economic model which will include lower employment, lower relative productivity of labor, a decline in the aggregate IQ of the population and therefore the smart fraction that provides all competitive value to the population, and extraordinary demands for redistribution, as a result, the state will end the liberal period not with socialism or communism, but with fascism, which is a tightly coupled public private sector, that monopolizes the ability issue money, issue credit money, collect interest, and convert from a tax based to a divident based majority financial funding of the state.