When predicting the future, much like multi-body problems with the extreme example being subatomic waves, you don’t try to distill it, but simply lay out a graph of every cycle you can find enough information to capture and search for convergences. Mostly, it’s demographic. I participated in the Reagan era ‘the state will go under like the soviets’ I understood the future pretty cleary around ’92. I got 2001 right but was surprised by it. By 04 a number of thinkers were seeing the same thing. Immigration was achieving what ideas didn’t:Demographics.
—“Revolutions are always suspect in prospect, and deterministic in retrospect”— I haven’t been wrong about any substantial prediction except the Chinese timeline since the early 00’s. Demographics are destiny. We will either separate or war. and we will know who to blame.