The Natural Law Institute

6. Means of Revolution and Civil War

Means of Revolution and Civil War

Goal: What will a revolution look like.

 

0. First Principles of the Causes of Political Conflict

( … ) Triangle

I. Categories of Political Conflict

A suggested spectrum, moving from the least organized, spontaneous uprisings to the most organized, structured efforts:

1. Spontaneous Uprisings (Organic)

  • Description: Revolutions that begin without formal leadership or planning. They are often driven by widespread discontent that spontaneously ignites into protests, riots, or other forms of civil disorder.
  • Examples: Bread riots, peasant revolts, or spontaneous protests in response to immediate conditions like famine, economic crisis, or sudden acts of state repression.
  • Key Feature: These revolutions evolve from grassroots anger and lack initial leadership or long-term planning.

2. Popular Protests and Movements

  • Description: Large-scale but initially unorganized protests driven by popular dissatisfaction. Over time, leaders or groups may emerge from the movement, but the initial phase is characterized by mass participation without formal direction.
  • Examples: The Arab Spring began as a series of spontaneous protests before coalescing into more organized movements in different countries.
  • Key Feature: Broad-based, often catalyzed by social media or other informal networks, sometimes leading to further organization.

3. Insurrections

  • Description: Armed or violent uprisings that occur as a more immediate and sometimes chaotic form of revolution. These events tend to be shorter-term, involve direct confrontations with authorities, and may or may not have clear leadership.
  • Examples: Paris Commune (1871), the Hungarian Revolution of 1956.
  • Key Feature: Short-lived but intense, typically lacking a full strategy or long-term organizational plan.

4. Guerilla Warfare

  • Description: Protracted, decentralized military or paramilitary campaigns typically led by revolutionary groups operating outside of conventional warfare. Guerrilla warfare aims to disrupt the existing regime through hit-and-run tactics and attrition.
  • Examples: Cuban Revolution (1959), Mao’s Long March.
  • Key Feature: Long-term resistance, often in rural or less controlled areas, sometimes with external ideological or material support.

5. Political Strikes and Nonviolent Resistance

  • Description: Organized efforts to overthrow a regime through strikes, boycotts, civil disobedience, and nonviolent protest. These methods can be highly organized and are aimed at paralyzing the state or eroding its legitimacy.
  • Examples: Gandhi’s movement for Indian independence, the Velvet Revolution in Czechoslovakia.
  • Key Feature: Emphasis on nonviolence, coordinated leadership, and mass participation targeting economic and political pressure points.

6. Coup d’État

  • Description: A sudden, organized seizure of power by a small group, typically involving military or political elites. Unlike popular revolutions, coups are typically executed by insiders within the state apparatus.
  • Examples: Chile (1973), Egypt (2013).
  • Key Feature: High degree of organization, often limited to elites or military, rapid change of government but not necessarily broader social change.

7. Civil Wars

  • Description: Armed conflict between organized factions or regions within a country, often involving different visions for the future of governance. Civil wars may begin as revolutions and evolve into broader conflicts as the government fights back.
  • Examples: The Russian Revolution leading to the Russian Civil War (1917–1923), the American Civil War (1861–1865).
  • Key Feature: Protracted, organized conflict involving competing factions with their own military structures.

8. Ideological and Organized Revolutionary Movements

  • Description: Revolutions led by organized, ideologically driven groups or parties aiming to transform society according to a specific vision (e.g., Marxist, anarchist, or nationalist). These revolutions are highly structured with clear leadership, planning, and strategic goals.
  • Examples: The Bolshevik Revolution (1917), the Chinese Communist Revolution (1949).
  • Key Feature: Centralized leadership, often with a vanguard party or movement, clear ideological framework guiding the revolution.

9. Hybrid Movements (Organic to Organized)

  • Description: Revolutions that begin organically with grassroots movements but become highly organized over time. Leadership emerges after initial spontaneous uprisings, and the revolution becomes more structured as it progresses.
  • Examples: The French Revolution began with spontaneous riots but eventually led to organized political factions, committees, and eventual dictatorial rule under Napoleon.
  • Key Feature: Initial spontaneity evolves into structured governance or leadership over time.

10. External Revolutions and Proxy Wars

  • Description: Revolutions instigated or heavily supported by external powers, often through material, financial, or military aid. These revolutions may be presented as domestic but are significantly shaped by foreign involvement.
  • Examples: The American Revolution (1775–1783) with French support, Soviet or U.S.-backed proxy revolutions during the Cold War.
  • Key Feature: External influence or direct intervention plays a significant role in supporting or sustaining the revolutionary movement.

Summary of Spectrum:

  • Organic: Revolutions start as unplanned, spontaneous actions driven by widespread grievances (spontaneous uprisings, protests, insurrections).
  • Increasing Organization: As revolutions evolve, they become more organized and structured, involving tactics like guerrilla warfare, nonviolent resistance, or political strikes.
  • Fully Organized: At the most organized end of the spectrum are coup d’états, civil wars, and ideologically driven movements, where leadership, planning, and specific objectives are clear from the outset.

This spectrum provides a flexible framework for understanding how revolutions can range from spontaneous and organic movements to highly organized efforts with clear leadership and strategy.

 

II. Examples of Those Conflicts

An extended list of 20th to 21st century revolutions categorized along the spectrum of means by which they were prosecuted, from spontaneous uprisings to fully organized movements. I’ve included examples that span different regions and types of revolution.

1. Spontaneous Uprisings (Organic)

  • Tiananmen Square Protests (1989, China) – A spontaneous uprising led primarily by students demanding political reforms.
  • Egyptian Revolution (2011, Arab Spring) – Initiated by spontaneous protests against the government of Hosni Mubarak.
  • Gezi Park Protests (2013, Turkey) – Began as a local protest against urban development in Istanbul, evolving into widespread anti-government protests.
  • Sudanese Revolution (2018–2019, Sudan) – Protests sparked by economic hardship led to the overthrow of Omar al-Bashir.

2. Popular Protests and Movements

  • Arab Spring (2010–2012, Middle East and North Africa) – A wave of popular protests that started in Tunisia and spread across the region, involving a range of countries like Egypt, Libya, Syria, and Yemen.
  • Iranian Green Movement (2009, Iran) – Mass protests following disputed presidential elections demanding greater political freedoms.
  • Anti-Austerity Protests (2008–2015, Greece, Spain) – Large-scale protests and movements against government-imposed austerity measures.
  • Colombian National Strike (2021, Colombia) – Nationwide protests against tax reforms, leading to a broader anti-government movement.
  • Yellow Vest Movement (2018, France) – Protests against fuel taxes and economic inequality.

3. Insurrections

  • Hungarian Revolution (1956, Hungary) – A short-lived national uprising against Soviet-imposed policies, eventually crushed by the Soviet army.
  • Paris Commune (1871, France) – Brief but intense uprising aiming to establish a socialist government in Paris, predating many later revolutions.
  • Estonian Singing Revolution (1987–1991, Estonia) – A nonviolent revolution where public singing of national songs became a key act of resistance against Soviet rule.
  • Baltic Way (1989, Baltic States) – Peaceful human chain protest in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania demanding independence from the USSR.

4. Guerrilla Warfare

  • Cuban Revolution (1953–1959, Cuba) – Guerrilla warfare led by Fidel Castro and Che Guevara against the Batista government.
  • Mao’s Communist Revolution (1927–1949, China) – Guerrilla warfare tactics, including the Long March, led to the overthrow of the Kuomintang (Nationalist Party).
  • Vietnamese Revolution (1945–1975, Vietnam) – Guerrilla warfare by the Viet Minh (and later the Viet Cong) against French colonial forces and later the U.S.-backed South Vietnamese government.
  • Nicaraguan Revolution (1961–1979, Nicaragua) – The Sandinista National Liberation Front used guerrilla tactics to overthrow the Somoza dictatorship.
  • Salvadoran Civil War (1979–1992, El Salvador) – Left-wing guerrilla groups fought against the U.S.-backed military government.

5. Political Strikes and Nonviolent Resistance

  • Indian Independence Movement (1919–1947, India) – Led by Mahatma Gandhi, employing nonviolent civil disobedience, strikes, and boycotts.
  • South African Anti-Apartheid Movement (1950s–1994, South Africa) – Combined nonviolent resistance, strikes, and political pressure to dismantle apartheid.
  • People Power Revolution (1986, Philippines) – Nonviolent protests and strikes led to the ousting of Ferdinand Marcos.
  • Velvet Revolution (1989, Czechoslovakia) – Nonviolent protests leading to the collapse of the Communist regime.
  • Polish Solidarity Movement (1980–1989, Poland) – Labor strikes and nonviolent resistance by the Solidarity union, leading to the end of communist rule.

6. Coup d’État

  • Iranian Coup d’État (1953, Iran) – CIA- and MI6-backed coup against Prime Minister Mossadegh, leading to the reinstatement of the Shah.
  • Chilean Coup (1973, Chile) – Military coup led by General Pinochet, overthrowing President Salvador Allende.
  • Libyan Coup d’État (1969, Libya) – Muammar Gaddafi led a coup against King Idris, establishing his control over Libya.
  • Portuguese Carnation Revolution (1974, Portugal) – Military coup that overthrew the Estado Novo dictatorship and led to a transition to democracy.
  • Thai Military Coup (2014, Thailand) – A military junta overthrew the elected government, taking control of the country.

7. Civil Wars

  • Russian Revolution and Civil War (1917–1923, Russia) – Revolution led to the overthrow of the Tsarist regime and the establishment of the Soviet Union, followed by a protracted civil war.
  • Spanish Civil War (1936–1939, Spain) – A multi-factional conflict between Republicans, fascists, and anarchists, resulting in Franco’s dictatorship.
  • Syrian Civil War (2011–present, Syria) – A revolution that evolved into a civil war involving multiple factions, including Assad’s government, ISIS, and opposition forces.
  • Chinese Civil War (1927–1949, China) – Conflict between the Nationalists (Kuomintang) and the Communists, leading to the establishment of the People’s Republic of China.
  • Yemeni Civil War (2014–present, Yemen) – An ongoing civil war involving Houthi rebels, government forces, and external powers like Saudi Arabia and Iran.

8. Ideological and Organized Revolutionary Movements

  • Bolshevik Revolution (1917, Russia) – Led by Lenin, the Bolsheviks overthrew the provisional government to establish the Soviet Union.
  • Chinese Communist Revolution (1949, China) – Mao Zedong’s Communist Party overthrew the Nationalist government to establish the People’s Republic of China.
  • Mexican Revolution (1910–1920, Mexico) – A broad revolution involving various factions, from land reformists to socialists, leading to the modernization of Mexico.
  • Iranian Revolution (1979, Iran) – Overthrow of the Shah’s regime and establishment of the Islamic Republic under Ayatollah Khomeini.
  • Nicaraguan Sandinista Revolution (1979, Nicaragua) – The Sandinistas overthrew the Somoza regime to establish a socialist government.

9. Hybrid Movements (Organic to Organized)

  • French Revolution (1789–1799, France) – Began as spontaneous protests and riots, but evolved into highly organized factions, including the Jacobins and the rise of Napoleon.
  • Romanian Revolution (1989, Romania) – Began as popular protests against Nicolae Ceau?escu, eventually leading to an organized overthrow and execution of Ceau?escu.
  • Mongolian Revolution (1990, Mongolia) – Peaceful protests and organized political opposition led to the end of 70 years of communist rule.
  • Algerian War of Independence (1954–1962, Algeria) – Began with spontaneous protests but became a highly organized war for independence against French colonial rule.

10. External Revolutions and Proxy Wars

  • Afghan Civil War and Soviet Invasion (1979–1989, Afghanistan) – A proxy war where the U.S. backed Mujahideen forces against the Soviet-backed Afghan government.
  • Greek Civil War (1946–1949, Greece) – A proxy conflict during the early Cold War between communist forces and the U.S./UK-backed government.
  • Vietnam War (1955–1975, Vietnam) – A proxy war involving the U.S. supporting the South Vietnamese government against the Soviet- and Chinese-backed Viet Cong and North Vietnamese forces.
  • Korean War (1950–1953, Korea) – A proxy conflict between U.S.-backed South Korea and Soviet/Chinese-backed North Korea.
  • Libyan Civil War (2011, Libya) – External intervention by NATO forces helped overthrow Muammar Gaddafi, leading to ongoing internal conflict.

Summary:

This comprehensive list illustrates how revolutions span a wide spectrum of means, from spontaneous uprisings to deeply organized ideological movements, and even external interventions shaping internal conflicts. By categorizing these revolutions, you can better understand how different dynamics influence the outcomes of revolutionary movements across the 20th and 21st centuries.

III. Variation by Stage of Development

The relationship between the level of institutional development toward the rule of law and the category of revolution employed reveals several patterns regarding how societies choose or are forced into different revolutionary tactics based on the strength or weakness of legal and institutional structures. By analyzing the types of revolutions and their categories from your list, we can derive some insights:

1. Low Institutional Development, Weak Rule of Law ? Organic Uprisings and Insurrections

  • Characteristics: Countries or regions with weak legal frameworks, poor institutional development, and high corruption often experience spontaneous uprisings or insurrections. In these cases, the absence of legitimate or functional avenues for grievance redress leads to disorganized, spontaneous revolts.
  • Examples:
    • Arab Spring (Egypt, Tunisia): The absence of functioning democratic institutions, high corruption, and authoritarian rule led to spontaneous protests. These governments lacked the flexibility or legitimacy to address grievances through legal or institutional reforms.
    • Sudanese Revolution (2018–2019): A weak rule of law under the authoritarian regime of Omar al-Bashir led to widespread protests with no organized leadership at first.
  • Insight: In societies where institutional structures are brittle or non-existent, revolutions often begin organically because citizens have no legitimate institutional mechanisms to challenge authority or address grievances.

2. Moderate Institutional Development ? Popular Movements, Strikes, and Nonviolent Resistance

  • Characteristics: In countries with moderate development of the rule of law and some functioning institutions, popular protests and nonviolent resistance emerge. These societies often have limited legal recourse, but enough political or civil space exists for coordinated resistance. The presence of institutions, even if imperfect, allows revolutionary movements to organize and pressure governments.
  • Examples:
    • Polish Solidarity Movement: Poland had institutions like unions and churches that provided a platform for resistance, despite being under Soviet control.
    • People Power Revolution (1986, Philippines): Though authoritarian, the Philippines had enough institutional flexibility (e.g., churches, press, opposition) to facilitate a mostly nonviolent revolution.
  • Insight: In states with semi-functional institutions, revolutionary efforts take the form of organized popular movements and nonviolent resistance because there is enough civil space for coordination, even if formal legal recourse is limited.

3. Fragile or Collapsed Institutions ? Civil War and Guerilla Warfare

  • Characteristics: In countries where state institutions have collapsed or become deeply fragile, revolutions often evolve into civil wars or guerrilla warfare. This occurs when there is a complete breakdown of the rule of law, leading to armed conflict between factions as no single group can secure a monopoly on legitimate force.
  • Examples:
    • Syrian Civil War: The collapse of state authority and rule of law led to a multifaceted civil war with multiple factions, including state forces, rebel groups, and terrorist organizations.
    • Vietnamese Revolution: The institutions of colonial Vietnam, followed by South Vietnam, were fragile and lacked legitimacy, leading to protracted guerrilla warfare and civil war.
  • Insight: When state institutions collapse or are extremely fragile, the vacuum of authority leads to prolonged conflict. Factions pursue power through violent means because there are no functional institutions to mediate disputes or uphold the rule of law.

4. High Institutional Development, Strong Rule of Law ? Nonviolent Movements, Legal Protests, or Organized Coups

  • Characteristics: In countries with relatively high institutional development but where political disenfranchisement or authoritarianism persists, revolutions often take the form of nonviolent protests, legal strikes, or occasionally organized coups. In these cases, institutions exist but may be captured by elites, blocked by authoritarian regimes, or selectively applied.
  • Examples:
    • Velvet Revolution (1989, Czechoslovakia): A peaceful, organized revolution in a society with relatively high social and institutional development, though constrained by Soviet-era control.
    • Portuguese Carnation Revolution (1974): A coup against an authoritarian regime, but relatively peaceful and followed by democratic reforms, reflecting some institutional resilience.
    • South African Anti-Apartheid Movement: South Africa had functioning institutions, even though they were exclusionary. Nonviolent resistance could organize due to moderate institutional development.
  • Insight: In societies where rule of law exists but is selectively enforced or captured by elites, revolutionary movements are more likely to leverage legal protests, organized strikes, or nonviolent resistance. Institutional strength enables coordination without immediate recourse to violence.

5. Weak but Functional Institutions ? External Revolutions and Proxy Wars

  • Characteristics: In countries with weak but functional institutions, revolutions may take the form of proxy wars or externally supported uprisings. These nations often become battlegrounds for larger ideological or geopolitical struggles because their institutions are vulnerable to external manipulation or support.
  • Examples:
    • Afghan Civil War: Weak Afghan institutions became a proxy battleground for U.S. and Soviet interests, demonstrating how fragile institutions invite external interference.
    • Vietnam War: Fragile institutions in South Vietnam allowed the U.S. to intervene heavily, supporting a regime that could not maintain power independently.
  • Insight: Weak institutions open the door for external manipulation, where revolutions can be hijacked or supported by foreign powers. These revolutions often occur where states are strategically significant but domestically fragile.

6. High Institutional Development, Mature Rule of Law ? Organized Coups and Constitutional Changes

  • Characteristics: In societies with high institutional development and a functioning rule of law, revolutions, if they occur, tend to take the form of organized coups or constitutional reforms rather than full-scale armed revolts. These societies have robust mechanisms for peaceful transfers of power or political change, but when those fail, coups are the most common method.
  • Examples:
    • Iranian Coup (1953): The institutions in Iran were somewhat developed but manipulated by foreign powers, leading to an organized coup.
    • Chilean Coup (1973): Chile had functioning institutions, but the coup led by General Pinochet overthrew a democratically elected president, reflecting how coups occur when institutional recourse is blocked.
  • Insight: In well-developed societies, power struggles often result in constitutional changes or institutional reorganization rather than full-scale revolution. When coups do occur, they tend to be organized and involve elite factions within the existing system rather than spontaneous uprisings.

General Patterns and Conclusions:

  1. Weak Institutions: Countries with weak or collapsed institutions are more prone to spontaneous uprisings, insurrections, or civil wars, as there are no legitimate channels for conflict resolution or change.

  2. Moderate Institutional Development: Societies with moderate institutional development tend to see nonviolent resistance, strikes, and popular movements. These movements exploit the available but imperfect legal frameworks and civil society space for organized, peaceful revolution.

  3. Strong Institutions, but with Autocratic Control: In nations with strong institutions but authoritarian regimes, revolutions often take the form of organized coups or well-coordinated civil resistance. While these societies have functioning institutions, they are often controlled by elites or military factions, necessitating more organized efforts to take power.

  4. External Manipulation in Fragile States: Nations with fragile but functioning institutions often become the target of external intervention and proxy wars, as foreign powers can exploit institutional weaknesses for their own purposes.

  5. Institutional Collapse Leads to Protracted Violence: When institutions collapse completely, revolutions frequently evolve into civil wars or guerrilla warfare, as competing factions vie for control without a neutral arbiter (such as courts or political institutions) to resolve conflicts.

Summary

In summary, the level of institutional development toward the rule of law shapes how revolutions are prosecuted. Strong institutions often mitigate violent revolutions, whereas weak institutions foster instability, leading to either spontaneous uprisings or organized military coups.

IV. Variation by Ethnic and Ideological Differences

The relationship between ideological and ethnic differences and the category of revolution is significant, as these factors can influence not only the type of revolution that occurs but also the level of intensity, organization, and methods employed. Ideological and ethnic divides shape revolutionary movements by driving different motivations, structures, and alliances. Below is an analysis of how ideological and ethnic differences influence each category of revolution, with examples to illustrate the connections.

1. Spontaneous Uprisings (Organic)

Relationship:
  • Ethnic and Ideological Homogeneity: In cases where a society is relatively ethnically homogeneous or lacks strong ideological divides, spontaneous uprisings may occur due to common grievances such as economic hardship or authoritarian repression. These uprisings are often unified around immediate concerns rather than long-standing ideological or ethnic tensions.
  • Ethnic or Sectarian Catalysts: In more divided societies, spontaneous uprisings can quickly escalate when ethnic or sectarian groups feel disenfranchised or persecuted, sparking wider unrest.
Examples:
  • Arab Spring: In Tunisia and Egypt, relatively ethnically homogeneous societies, the protests were driven by economic issues and opposition to authoritarianism, with minimal ethnic or ideological divides at play in the early stages.
  • Sudanese Revolution: Ethnic tensions, particularly the marginalization of non-Arab groups in regions like Darfur, contributed to spontaneous uprisings, where ethnic grievances played a significant role.
Insight:
  • Ethnic or ideological homogeneity often results in spontaneous uprisings being focused on common issues like economic or political grievances. In contrast, in ethnically diverse or sectarian societies, these uprisings can rapidly escalate into ethnic-based violence or demands for autonomy.

2. Popular Protests and Movements

Relationship:
  • Ideological Movements: Ideological differences are more likely to drive popular protest movements that are not necessarily violent but are organized around political ideas such as socialism, nationalism, or democratic reform. These movements often bring together diverse groups under a common ideological banner.
  • Ethnic-Based Movements: In some cases, ethnic groups with a history of marginalization use protests and movements to demand equal rights, autonomy, or recognition within a broader national context.
Examples:
  • Iranian Green Movement (2009): Ideological opposition to theocratic rule, demanding political and democratic reforms, brought together diverse factions under a common cause.
  • Black Lives Matter Movement (2013–present, U.S.): While driven by issues of racial inequality, this movement reflects broader societal divisions over race and ethnic identity, mobilizing both ethnically diverse and ideologically aligned participants.
Insight:
  • Ideological differences tend to drive organized protests around systemic political issues like democracy, socialism, or secularism. Ethnic differences often focus movements on specific issues of identity, recognition, and rights.

3. Insurrections

Relationship:
  • Ethnic-Based Insurrections: Ethnic divisions can lead to insurrections when a minority group feels politically excluded or oppressed. These insurrections often aim for autonomy or the overthrow of regimes that are seen as favoring a dominant ethnic group.
  • Ideological Insurrections: Insurrections driven by ideological divides can occur in states where radical ideological groups (e.g., communists, anarchists) clash with existing regimes.
Examples:
  • Hungarian Revolution (1956): A mix of nationalist and ideological opposition to Soviet communism led to an insurrection against Soviet control.
  • Paris Commune (1871): An ideologically driven insurrection where socialist and anarchist factions sought to establish a radical government in Paris.
  • Rwanda (1994): Ethnic tensions between Hutus and Tutsis culminated in violence, with the genocide itself being an extreme case of ethnic-based insurrection.
Insight:
  • Insurrections in ethnically divided societies often focus on ethnic dominance and exclusion, whereas ideological insurrections tend to occur in states where radical ideas cannot find political expression within existing institutions.

4. Guerrilla Warfare

Relationship:
  • Ethnic-Based Guerrilla Movements: Ethnic groups often resort to guerrilla warfare when they seek autonomy, independence, or resistance to a central government they perceive as oppressive. Guerrilla tactics allow marginalized ethnic groups to wage prolonged resistance in areas where they are geographically concentrated.
  • Ideological Guerrilla Movements: Ideologically driven guerrilla movements, such as communist or anti-imperialist movements, use guerrilla tactics as a way to resist dominant regimes, especially when conventional political avenues are closed.

Examples:

  • Vietnam War: Ideological guerrilla warfare, where communist forces (Viet Cong) fought against capitalist and colonial forces.
  • Kurdish PKK Movement (Turkey, Syria, Iraq): An ethnic-based guerrilla movement aimed at creating an autonomous Kurdish state, employing guerrilla tactics against Turkey and other governments.
  • Nicaraguan Sandinista Revolution (1961–1979): A Marxist, ideologically driven guerrilla movement against the Somoza dictatorship.
Insight:
  • Ethnic differences often drive guerrilla warfare when marginalized groups seek autonomy or independence. Ideological differences fuel guerrilla warfare in situations where radical political groups seek to overthrow or resist entrenched regimes, particularly when they have a stronghold in rural areas.

5. Political Strikes and Nonviolent Resistance

Relationship:

  • Ideological Unity: Ideological movements often favor nonviolent resistance when there is significant ideological cohesion around the principles of democracy, civil rights, or socialism. These movements rely on mass participation and organized leadership.
  • Ethnic Minorities and Nonviolent Resistance: Ethnic minority groups may also employ nonviolent resistance, especially when seeking civil rights or recognition within a broader legal or political framework.
Examples:
  • Indian Independence Movement (1919–1947): Gandhi’s ideology of nonviolent resistance against British colonial rule unified diverse ethnic and religious groups under a common ideological vision of freedom and self-determination.
  • South African Anti-Apartheid Movement: Although primarily ethnically driven by racial divisions, it was also ideologically driven by opposition to apartheid and a vision of multiracial democracy.
Insight:
  • Ideologically unified movements often favor nonviolent resistance to achieve systemic political change. Ethnic movements sometimes adopt nonviolent tactics when they aim for recognition within an existing political system rather than secession.

6. Coup d’État

Relationship:
  • Ethnic-Based Coups: Coups can be driven by ethnic factions within the military or elite circles, seeking to overthrow a regime dominated by a rival ethnic group. Ethnic coups often aim to control state institutions that are seen as favoring one ethnic group over another.
  • Ideological Coups: Ideological factions within the military or political elite may seize power to prevent the spread of rival ideologies (e.g., communism, socialism) or to promote their own ideological agendas.
Examples:
  • Rwandan Coup (1973): Ethnic tensions between Hutus and Tutsis led to a Hutu-dominated military coup against the Tutsi-led government.
  • Chilean Coup (1973): A military coup led by General Pinochet, driven by ideological opposition to the Marxist government of Salvador Allende.
Insight:
  • Ethnic coups tend to occur in societies with deep-seated ethnic divisions, where military factions act on behalf of their ethnic group. Ideological coups happen in situations where political elites fear the spread of ideologies like socialism or communism.

7. Civil Wars

Relationship:
  • Ethnic Civil Wars: Ethnic differences often fuel civil wars in cases where multiple ethnic groups compete for political dominance or autonomy. Civil wars driven by ethnic differences are usually protracted and marked by violence targeting civilians, with factions often seeking either control of the state or secession.
  • Ideological Civil Wars: Ideologically driven civil wars typically occur when opposing ideological factions (e.g., communists vs. capitalists, democrats vs. authoritarians) vie for control of the political system. These wars often follow revolutions that are unable to settle ideological disputes through political means.
Examples:
  • Rwandan Genocide and Civil War (1994): A horrific ethnic conflict between Hutus and Tutsis, marked by genocide and civil war.
  • Spanish Civil War (1936–1939): A deeply ideological civil war between fascists, communists, anarchists, and democrats, with strong external ideological support.
  • Yugoslav Wars (1991–2001): Ethnic differences, particularly between Serbs, Croats, and Bosniaks, drove the breakup of Yugoslavia into several civil wars.
Insight:
  • Ethnic civil wars are often characterized by competition over political dominance or territory. Ideological civil wars, on the other hand, focus on establishing a particular political or economic system, with ideological factions mobilizing the population around competing visions for the future.

8. Ideological and Organized Revolutionary Movements

Relationship:
  • Ideological Unity: These revolutions are typically driven by a clear ideological vision (e.g., communism, nationalism, or religious fundamentalism) that unifies a broad coalition of people. Ethnic differences may exist but are often secondary to the primary ideological agenda.
  • Ethnic-Based Revolutionary Movements: Some organized revolutions are driven by ethnic groups seeking to create their own state or significantly alter the ethnic balance of power within a country.
Examples:
  • Bolshevik Revolution (1917): A purely ideological revolution driven by Marxist principles to overthrow the Tsarist regime and establish a socialist state.
  • Chinese Communist Revolution (1949): Ideologically driven by communism but also incorporating ethnic unity under a single-party state.
  • Kosovo Liberation Army (1990s): An organized ethnic-based revolutionary movement aimed at securing independence for ethnic Albanians in Kosovo.
Insight:
  • Ideologically driven revolutions tend to focus on broad societal transformation based on political or economic theories. Ethnic-based revolutionary movements are narrower in focus, aiming for autonomy or independence, but when they are well-organized, they resemble ideologically driven revolutions in structure.

Conclusions:

  1. Ethnic Differences: When ethnic differences are the primary driver, revolutions often fall into the categories of insurrections, guerrilla warfare, ethnic coups, or civil wars. Ethnic revolutions tend to focus on territorial control, autonomy, or dominance over state institutions.

  2. Ideological Differences: Ideologically driven revolutions are more likely to take the form of organized movements, nonviolent resistance, guerrilla warfare, or civil wars. These revolutions aim to implement new political systems or ideologies and often involve broader societal transformation rather than just ethnic control.

  3. Mixed Dynamics: Many revolutions involve both ethnic and ideological factors. For example, ethnic tensions can be exacerbated by ideological divides, as seen in the Yugoslav Wars or the Rwandan Genocide, where ethnic conflicts were influenced by deeper ideological or political divisions.

In essence, ethnic divisions tend to produce revolutions focused on control over territory and governance, while ideological divisions often lead to revolutions aimed at systemic change of political or economic institutions.

Parasitic Irreciprocities Birthed in Revolution

  • Ascendant classes often use the momentum of revolution to impose new forms of parasitic irreciprocity on other groups (including elites), particularly when they achieve new power through revolution.
  • Post-Revolutionary Parasitic Irreciprocities:
    • Expropriation of wealth from the previous ruling class.
    • Redistribution of assets without creating productive value (e.g., nationalization).
    • Use of ideological movements to suppress dissent and entrench the new ruling class.

Distinctions Between Successful and Failed Revolutions

  • Successful Revolutions:

    • Able to create a new system of governance that is viewed as legitimate by the majority of the population.
    • Achieve long-term stability by integrating different factions and addressing inequalities.
    • Example: American Revolution, which resulted in a stable republic with systems of checks and balances.

  • Failed Revolutions:

    • Revolutions that lead to prolonged chaos or a return to authoritarian rule. Often result from an inability to build new institutions or from deep factional divides.
    • Example: The Arab Spring led to destabilization in many countries, where the initial revolutionary movements resulted in either civil war or authoritarian backlash.

 

Curt Doolittle (ericd)

Leave a Reply