In Times of Irregularity

Everything is easy, and is wit common, in times of regularity. It is those few of us who see the outcome and the great changes that result from those regularities that leave marks on history – not the imbecile who extrapolates trends without warranty then reappears with new pretenses like next season’s fashion designer.

There is good reason to follow trend if you are unable to do otherwise, and every reason to act counter to trend if you are able.

Contrarianism merely identifies outcomes. But betting on those outcomes is the difference between contrarian signaling and contrarian investment.

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