Curt: “What Are the Ulterior Motives in The Ukraine Conflict?”
THE CORRECT ANSWER
There are no ulterior motives. It is a natural conflict between European Self Determination by Self Determined means using individual and group sovereignty, requiring rule of law, democracy, and Federalism between states at the cost of high trust and responsibility, versus, Asian Authoritarianism depriving peoples of self-determination, sovereignty, by using rule by decree, rule by authority, and imperialism, in exchange for low public trust and low individual responsibility.
This European vs Asian difference is due to the success at European genetic and cultural relative homogeneity succeeding in self domesticating the European peninsula, while Russia(Asia) has the ongoing problem of eleven time zones, too little population, the conquest and governance of many minorities, the Turkics and the Asiatics who are most likely to conquer Russia from both without and within, forcing Russians back to the west of the Urals, and depriving Russia of its only economy: resource exploitation and military spending putting Russia back into its ancestral relative poverty. So for Russia, it’s a bit like the USA trying to protect the south from Mexico – except the people surrounding Russia are of different races, ethnicities and cultures, and of many orders of magnitude greater populations.
So for Russia and the west, the obvious solution is unity in defense of each other’s borders. But Russians are a low trust, low responsibility-for-commons people and Europeans are a high trust high responsibility-for-commons people. Russia is right on culture and the west is wrong. Russia is right on geostrategy (Russia is better at external regulation) and the west is wrong (utopianism is common in the west). The west is right on trust, economy, law, and governance (internal regulation), and the Russians are wrong on economy vs military because they feel the west doesn’t understand their needs because Russians are like Germans (all continentals really), sentimental, and are poor at disambiguating their strategic needs from the moral and emotional means of communicating that strategy personally and internally.
The obvious problem preventing unity is elites. Russians have been through class and ethnicity bolshevism, and they recognize postwar western elites particularly in America as converting class bolshevism to Race-Bolshevism or what James Lindsay is calling “Race Marxism” (the sequence of neo-Marxist, postmodern, anti-male feminism, and pc-woke). These race-bolsheviks in America have taken power as did the bolsheviks in Russia by working through academia, into the talking classes as a secular priesthood of credentialed clerecy. Russians, and eastern Europeans in general, (as is the rest of the world) are keenly aware of the ‘decadence’ by which the western race-bolsheviks are spreading. They now equate race-bolshevism (pc-woke) with the west, instead of sovereignty, rule of law, economic prosperity, and self-determination.
In other words, relatively homogenous low conflict people create federations, and relatively heterogeneous high conflict people create empires. These are necessities, not choices. The only means of converting from empire to federation is through population replacement. Which is how western race-bolsheviks use forced heterogeneity to generate conflict, generate demand for the state authority to limit internal conflict at the expense of trust and increase in corruption. The Chinese do this by forcible indoctrination into Han culture and institutions such that people lose all their ethnic identity. The Russian Bolsheviks did the same thing for the same reasons.
These same race-bolshevik elites in the west are responsible for the posture against Russia, by pretending that the method of government in Russia is for some reason other than defense against western decadence that they see as civilizational corruption and the necessity of preventing internecine battles in an empire of many ethnic minorities. So just as the Nazis used authoritarian nationalism to defend against the class-bolsheviks, the Russians are using authoritarian nationalism to defend against the race-bolsheviks. Likewise, elites in Russia are pretending that they have a beneficial system of government, despite the evidence to the contrary – at least in economics and standard of living.
So the Russians rightly see themselves as defending against Race-Bolshevik Woke for which NATO is the military arm, and the US reserve currency as the means of funding it.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainians rightly see themselves wanting to follow Poland into economic prosperity, democratic elections, rule of law, but maintaining their social conservatism as a defense against the woke suicidal west – by resisting the race-bolsheviks (neo-Marxist, pomo, anti-male feminist, pc-woke).
But just as the race-bolsheviks in America relocated southern blacks to the urban centers to destroy political unity and governability, (See “The Slaughter of the Cities”) Russia’s class-bolsheviks moved Russian peasants into the Donbas region of Ukraine to obtain pliant obedient labor. This left Ukraine as what we call a ‘Torn Country’. And torn countries (like the entirety of the middle east and all of Africa) experience “Torn Polities that cannot govern’. The solution to torn countries is peaceful separation. That means that the correct answer was to peacefully divide the Russian east from the Ukrainian west. Rather than doing so by force. (Just as the USA will have to separate again soon.)
However, this means that a European Ukraine that remains intact will be home to another wealthy, democratic, sovereign country, part of the federation of wealthy democratic sovereign European countries. And that this ‘proof’ that Ukraine like Poland is better off without Russian ‘rule’, and better off outside of the Russian sphere, is a threat to the Russian government, its imperial ambitions, and the possibility of holding territory – and in fact, its ability to exist as a pan-Eurasian state. Because as we see, the Russian people would prefer European institutions and conditions – which is why they vote with their feet at every opportunity and don’t reproduce, which is collapsing Russian demographics necessary to hold that territory.
So Russia, in the absence of unity with the west (rebuilding NATO to a circumpolar system of mutual defense of borders AND culture) will die. But Russians cannot trust the west, governed by race-bolsheviks not to destroy Slavic culture as it has Anglo, Germanic, and Latin.
Without replacing the ‘woke’ elites in the west (gutting the deep state, the academy, and media) it will be impossible to unite Latin, Germanic, Balto-Slavic, Slavic, and Russian Europe into a circumpolar equivalent to Chinese, Indian civilization-states, and south Eurasian Islamic theocratic civilization, capable of self-preservation in the post-pax-Americana that is as unappreciated and taken for granted as was the pax Britannia and pax Romana.
The world is entirely comprehensible by analysis of the evidence and resulting incentives. The problem is that we are all too primitive and uneducated, and play shallow moralizing public games of pseudo-debate when the superstructure behind our conflicts is an ancient one: (a) the barbarism of Semitic false-promise (theology, philosophy, ideology ) of the top and bottom against the middle for their exploitative self-interests at the cost of the common good; (b) the authoritarianism of the empire necessary to create trade by suppression of alternatives to trade in an attempt to construct a common good out of barbarism; or (c) the progressivism of European federalism of the middle constraining the top and bottom to the common good. That these strategies are a natural evolutionary sequence necessary for all polities may not be immediately obvious – but in retrospect, it’s humiliatingly obvious.
This analysis is all you really need, to understand the pre-and-postwar era, and the collapse of western advantage by the race-bolshevik destruction of institutions of cultural production in the west, just as the Jews-Christians-and Muslims destroyed the institutions of cultural production in the ancient world, thereby converting North African, Egyptian, Levantine, Anatolian, Greek, Balkan, Persian, and northwest Indian civilization into superstition, ignorance, dysgenia, and decline such that by 800ad the civilizational gains in knowledge made possible by the agrarian and Indo European revolutions was spent and all civilizations other than Europe collapsed into stagnation or slow devolution.
There is one evil in this world. And it is the suppression of evolutionary discovery, innovation, and adaptation, by the farming of any pretense of a middle class by the upper classes in order to maintain the fealty of the lower classes, despite impoverishment, because the lower classes fear inequality and being left behind- when inequality is always a temporary condition of the unequal distribution of prosperity during periods of evolutionary expansion. We may solve the problem of condition over time, but we will never solve evolution’s problem of inequality of human ability and therefore value to one another over time. That would mean evolutionary extinction.
End Woke aggressively. Suppress degeneracy. Guarantee one another’s sovereignty. Create Unity. Unite the circumpolar European world. Restore rule of law. And restore evolution. The universe has but one command: evolve or die. Woke is just a repeat of the Semitic destruction of the great civilizations of the ancient world by the false promise of freedom from the evolutionary laws of nature, the physical laws of scarcity, the behavioral law of self-interested reciprocity, and the logical laws of truthful speech, by the invention of the mass production of lying made possible by greek writing and Roman roads. And repeated this time by mass migration and mass communication, converting the manual mass production of these lies to the industrial mass production of these lies.